Every week during college football season, The Athletic’s college football writers will make their picks against the spread for the biggest games on the schedule. Our in-depth coverage from every team is linked below the picks.
A full slate of conference play delivered last week and threw more twists into the ever-changing playoff picture. Georgia and Alabama blew away ranked opposition, Cincinnati made a statement for its College Football Playoff resume and Kentucky and Stanford picked up notable upsets.
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This week has plenty more intriguing games with Alabama and Georgia going on the road after home blowouts along with a massive showdown in the Big Ten between Iowa and Penn State. Plus, Michigan is on the road with an undefeated record against Nebraska.
Ari Wasserman rejoins us this week as a new father and has the lead in our standings upon his return.
| Overall | Last week | |
|---|---|---|
Ari Wasserman | 18-17-1 | |
Jason Starrett | 23-24-1 | 4-8 |
Dan Santaromita | 20-27-1 | 7-5 |
Chris Vannini | 17-30-1 | 5-7 |
All spreads listed are locked in for when we picked them and will not necessarily reflect the latest lines. Live college football odds are available here. All kickoff times are Eastern and rankings are from the AP poll.
Stanford at No. 22 Arizona State (-10.5)
10:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN
| Pick | |
|---|---|
Dan Santaromita | |
Jason Starrett | |
Chris Vannini | |
Ari Wasserman |
Stanford-Arizona State storylines
- Arizona State’s Ricky Pearsall is on a breakout trajectory his father set for him long ago: ‘It’s about time’
- Arizona State-UCLA final thoughts: Are the Sun Devils flawed or Pac-12 South contenders? Both, and that might be OK
Both these teams are coming off big Pac-12 wins and now face off on a Friday night. The Sun Devils find themselves back in the top 25 after a 42-23 win over then-No. 20 UCLA.
Stanford, coming off its win against then-No. 3 Oregon, will likely need to score big to stick with the Sun Devils. ASU allows the seventh-fewest passing yards in college football, which could be trouble for quarterback Tanner McKee. Friday’s game could call for a heavier dose of Nathaniel Peat.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. No. 21 Texas
Noon Saturday, ABC
Oklahoma-Texas storylines
- In SEC move, allies Texas, Oklahoma prioritize Red River rivalry: ‘The game itself is the crown jewel’
- Oklahoma’s identity still unclear, Spencer Rattler’s play under pressure, turning to Texas
It’s time for the next installment of one of the oldest rivalries in college football. Oklahoma and Texas play for the 117th time on Saturday, with the Sooners opening as favorites. Oklahoma’s won three straight against Texas and nine of the past 12 meetings, including a 53-45 quadruple-overtime thriller last year.
Texas owns college football’s No. 5 rushing attack, thanks in large part to Bijan Robinson, and faces its toughest test yet in Oklahoma’s No. 7 run defense. We could see more of Casey Thompson and the passing game this week, but something’s going to have to give in Dallas.
No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-6.5)
Noon Saturday, ESPN
It seems safe to call this a battle of the SEC’s second tier. Both Arkansas and Ole Miss were early season darlings before getting a reality check last week from Georgia and Alabama. With the conference juggernauts likely to occupy one to two spots in the CFP, this matchup could play a hand in the New Year’s Six bowl picture.
Ole Miss’ high-powered offense gets another tough test in Arkansas’s defense, which still ranks in the top 10 in total defense.
Boise State at BYU (-5)
3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC
Boise State-BYU storylines
- What’s wrong with Boise State? The numbers that explain a slow start, plus Cincinnati vs. BYU debate and more: G5 Drive
- The Mountain West Conference will remain as is — for now: League commissioner on ‘proactive’ moves, scheduling and more
BYU has emerged as one of the top teams outside the Power 5 in recent years while Boise State is not in that category for the first time in years. The Cougars already have three wins against Pac-12 foes and are trying to force their way into the College Football Playoff discussion.
On the other side, coach Andy Avalos is still looking for his first notable win at Boise State. He’s come close against UCF, Oklahoma State and now Nevada, but the Broncos having been outscored 43-17 in the second half of their losses.
No. 2 Georgia (-14.5) at No. 18 Auburn
3:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS
| Pick | |
|---|---|
Dan Santaromita | Georgia |
Jason Starrett | Georgia |
Chris Vannini | Georgia |
Ari Wasserman | Georgia |
Georgia-Auburn storylines
- Why JT Daniels’ lat injury has Georgia looking to the Dallas Cowboys and New York Yankees for treatment advice
- Data behind Georgia’s defensive dominance, a reinvigorated run game and the Auburn test up next
It would appear that Georgia is on a collision course with the CFP at this point. The next ranked team to stand in the Bulldogs’ way is Auburn, fresh off a big win at LSU.
After Georgia blew away Arkansas, none of us dare to pick against the Bulldogs again this week. Bo Nix made some miraculous plays against LSU and will need some more in this one.
No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa (-2.5)
4 p.m. Saturday, Fox
| Pick | |
|---|---|
Dan Santaromita | |
Jason Starrett | Iowa |
Chris Vannini | |
Ari Wasserman | Iowa |
Penn State-Iowa storylines
- Dochterman: Organically grown, Penn State-Iowa has become the Big Ten’s best rivalry that’s not a rivalry
- Penn State’s disruptive defense, short-yardage struggles and more observations from Indiana: Upon further review
- Iowa’s ball-hawking defense makes it a contender: ‘The sky’s the limit’
As far as the stakes, Iowa-Penn State could be a potential game of the year candidate in the Big Ten, though the people of Columbus and Ann Arbor will almost certainly attempt to change our minds later on this season. Both the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions have rolled over most of their competition to this point and sit in the top-5 of the AP poll.
Both teams are coming off convincing wins and our group is split down the middle on which way to go. Sean Clifford and Jahan Dotson against Iowa’s defense is a fun matchup on paper.
LSU at No. 16 Kentucky (-3)
7:30 p.m. Saturday, SEC Network
LSU-Kentucky storylines
- Kentucky fans dance on the grass, bask in ‘wonderful relief’ after Wildcats finally deliver
- Inside LSU’s challenging road ahead: What must change, what it can rely on and how it all may shake out
Kentucky is ranked after a 20-13 upset of then-No.10 Florida. Now, the Wildcats host LSU hoping to stay undefeated.
What stood out from Kentucky’s win against Florida was the Wildcats pulling out the win despite totaling 224 yards of offense. LSU had offensive issues as well, struggling to run the ball and close out Auburn after leading 19-10. LSU hasn’t lost to Kentucky since 2007.
No. 12 Michigan (-3) at Nebraska
7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC
| Pick | |
|---|---|
Dan Santaromita | Michigan |
Jason Starrett | Michigan |
Chris Vannini | Michigan |
Ari Wasserman | Michigan |
Michigan-Nebraska storylines
- How Michigan’s Josh Ross found his groove: Yoga, brotherly advice and a breath of fresh air
- How an unexpected connection on the left side of Nebraska’s O-line can help lift the Huskers
The Wolverines are back in the top 10 for the first time since 2019, fresh off a 38-17 win at Wisconsin. Michigan won their first game in Madison in 20 years behind a three-turnover afternoon from the defense and two touchdowns apiece by Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy. Last week was the first time McNamara had to attempt more than 16 passes after Wisconsin held the UM run game in check.
Nebraska is playing much better since an opening loss against Illinois, but none of our pickers are going with the Huskers in this one.
No. 14 Notre Dame (-1.5) at Virginia Tech
7:30 p.m. Saturday, ACC Network
| Pick | |
|---|---|
Dan Santaromita | |
Jason Starrett | |
Chris Vannini | |
Ari Wasserman |
Notre Dame-Virginia Tech storylines
- Virginia Tech players relish another chance at Notre Dame, plus Tre Turner puts injuries behind him and more
- Notre Dame, Virginia Tech have similar early struggles to shake and a fork in the road ahead: Beat writer breakdown
Notre Dame is coming off its first loss of the year, falling 24-13 against Cincinnati. Now, the Irish head to Virginia Tech, hoping to avoid a two-game slide against a dangerous ACC team.
Virginia Tech has fallen off a bit since an impressive season-opener against North Carolina, but enters this one coming off a bye week.
8 p.m. Saturday, CBS
Georgia-Auburn storylines
- Heisman straw poll: Bryce Young holds big early lead over Bijan Robinson, Desmond Ridder
- Alabama takeaways: Nick Saban uses ‘old-school’ methods to beat Lane Kiffin, Drew Sanders keeps growing and more
Alabama reasserted itself as a juggernaut by blowing away Ole Miss comfortably. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is coming off back-to-back losses.
A&M has plenty of motivation after the only loss the Aggies suffered in 2020 was at the hands of Alabama. All of our pickers are sticking with status quo and Alabama to cover a big spread, which has been moving towards Alabama since it opened.
(Photo of Lukas Van Ness and Jack Campbell: Matthew Holst / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
Dan Santaromita is a senior editor for sports betting at The Athletic. Dan previously wrote for NBC Sports Chicago and ProSoccerUSA. He is a University of Missouri graduate who resides in Chicago. Follow Dan on Twitter @TheDanSanto
