You know it’s been a different kind of season already when two top-5 teams from the Big Ten are squaring off, and neither of them is Ohio State.
Let’s make some picks.
Last week’s record: 7-4 straight up, 3-7-1 against the spread.
Season: 31-24 straight up, 25-27-3 against the spread
(Bruce Feldman’s Week 6 picks can be found here.)
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(All point spreads come from BetMGM, all kickoff times are Eastern and every game unless otherwise noted is on Saturday.)
No. 6 Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. No. 21 Texas, noon, ABC
Oklahoma is ranked 15 spots higher than Texas because it hasn’t lost yet, and because Texas got blown out by Arkansas in Week 2. But the Horns have been playing better than the Sooners for several weeks. Their offense is more dynamic. This is their chance to enter the national conversation.
Texas 26, Oklahoma 21
Pick: Texas +3.5
No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-6), noon, ESPN
Which team bounces back faster from its humbling losses to the nation’s two best teams last week? The guess here is Ole Miss, mostly because the game is in Oxford — but don’t expect the Rebels to run through Arkansas’s defense like Georgia did. Quarterback Matt Corral will need to avenge last year’s six-interception game.
Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 28
Pick: Ole Miss -6
No. 11 Michigan State (-5.5) at Rutgers, noon, Big Ten Network
Rutgers has reached the point where it could very well knock off one of the upper-tier Big Ten teams this season. But Mel Tucker’s Spartans have been very consistent, both at home and on the road, thanks to the nation’s No. 1 rusher (Kenneth Walker) and 11th-rated passer (Payton Thorne).
Michigan State 30, Rutgers 24
Pick: Michigan State -5.5
Boise State at No. 10 BYU (-5.5), 3:30 p.m., ABC
As Chris Vannini detailed this week, the 2-3 Broncos are really struggling to run the ball and to protect quarterback Hank Bachmeier. That seems less than ideal going up against a Kalani Sitake defense. Worth noting: BYU is a modest 70th nationally in YPP allowed (5.4), but the Cougars have been stopping red zone attempts.
BYU 29, Boise State 23
Pick: BYU -5.5
No. 2 Georgia (-15) at No. 18 Auburn, 3:30 p.m., CBS
The Bo Nix Experience has officially become a thing, and if history holds true, Auburn’s junior quarterback is likely to follow up his clutch performance at LSU by … doing kind of the opposite against Georgia’s thus-far impenetrable defense. The Dawgs appear to be on a world domination tour, with or without JT Daniels.
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Georgia 26, Auburn 7
Pick: Georgia -15
No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa (-2.5), 4 p.m., Fox
It’s likely to be a close, low-scoring game thanks to two of the nation’s top-10 defenses and, notably for a Penn State-Iowa game, two of the nation’s top-15 punters, Jordan Stout and Tory Taylor. In a close, low-scoring game, I give Penn State a slight edge due to one of the nation’s top skill guys, wide receiver Jahan Dotson.
Penn State 21, Iowa 20
Pick: Penn State +2.5
LSU at No. 16 Kentucky (-3.5), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Kentucky fans have started dreaming about reaching the College Football Playoff after upsetting Florida and moving to 5-0. I don’t want to be a party pooper, but I’m not sure how realistic it is that the Wildcats can keep winning games 16-10 and 20-13 every week. LSU can’t run the ball at all, but it does have stud receiver Kayshon Boutte.
LSU 23, Kentucky 20
Pick: LSU +3.5
No. 9 Michigan (-3.5) at Nebraska, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Nebraska is 3-3, but we know its defense is very good. And with a few personnel changes last week, the offense exploded last week against Northwestern. The time is ripe for Scott Frost to finally win a big game … I just don’t trust that the Huskers can beat a top-10 team with their penchant for self-inflicted wounds.
Michigan 27, Nebraska 23
Pick: Michigan -3.5
No. 14 Notre Dame (-1) at Virginia Tech, 7:30 p.m., ACC Network
It’s no secret Notre Dame’s offense is in shambles. Brian Kelly somehow has a three-man quarterback derby going in October. If Drew Pyne gets the start and leads the Irish to glory, great! But that woeful offensive line going up against a strong Hokies defense, on the road at night, does not sound like a recipe for rejuvenation.
Virginia Tech 19, Notre Dame 16
Pick: Virginia Tech +1
No. 1 Alabama (-18) at Texas A&M, 8 p.m., CBS
It’s not going to be pretty. The Aggies do have an outstanding defense that might be able to slow down Bryce Young and/or Brian Robinson for a half, but the Tide offense will inevitably explode at some point, and Zach Calzada and the struggling A&M offense doesn’t seem likely to keep up.
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Alabama 35, Texas A&M 16
Pick: Alabama -18
This week’s Upset Special: No. 19 Wake Forest (-6) at Syracuse, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
Unbeknownst to anyone outside of central New York, 3-2 Syracuse boasts the nation’s No. 18 defense (4.5 YPP). Two weeks ago at the Carrier Dome, they knocked off Liberty and its projected first-round QB Malik Willis. Sam Hartman and the Demon Deacons are potent, but hardly unbeatable.
Syracuse 30, Wake Forest 27
Pick: Syracuse +6
(Photo of Casey Thompson: Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
